Imagine this: Steve, your acquaintance, reports having paid $3,000 for Bitcoin. Twelve months fast forward, Steve’s smile more than that of a cat snatching the cream. You now wonder, “Should I jump in?” Still, is juice left in the squeeze? Predicting the value of Bitcoin seems like trying to grab smoke with just your bare hands. Let us now explore, nevertheless, why, how, and maybe—just maybe—when the next wave arrives. With volatility on the rise, our bitcoin price prediction offers clarity amid the chaos.

First of all, prior performance is a curse as much as a comfort tool. People enjoy looking back and selecting those great years: $1,000 to $20,000 in one exciting sweep in 2017. Digital gold fever, splashy headlines, the kind of frenzy lighting Twitter ablaze. Try projecting a top or a bottom, though. That’s hill climbing in ice skating. Those who purchased at the height would tell you the only thing declining faster than Bitcoin was their stomach when the downturn came.

What then shapes the price? Supply, demand, news, Elon’s tweets, global economic strife, rumors of regulation—some days, to be honest, it feels like even the temperature. Hell, I have seen crazy swings following a Twitter profile photo update. And cutting activities half-way. Oh, people really fix on the halving cycles. The reward for mining fresh blocks is smaller every four years, so theoretically Bitcoin becomes scarcer. Scarcity is advantageous. People enjoy rare objects. The charts do not always move the way you would wish, though.

Let us now address technical analysis. Candle charts, Fibonacci retracements, moving averages—this stuff looks like magic. Some people draw lines until they reach their target count. Still, there is logic in the craziness. When resistance breaks, bulls start to get excited. Bears celebrate when support starts to wither. Sometimes the same Tuesday marks both events.

Then there is the macro view. Rising inflation, banks on unstable footing, and people ready for substitutes. Suddenly, Bitcoin’s story as a “hedge” flashes on screen. Take that title, though, with some saltiness. Bitcoin occasionally keeps track of technology stocks. It does its own thing sometimes completely. Trying to pin it down is like cuddling a hedgehog—gentle or you will get pricked.

Not to overlook the wildcards either. Nations outlawing Bitcoin one day, then making pleasant sounds the next. El Salvador famously went all in, lightening wallets and all, while other countries seem tense. Large institutions tiptoe in. Either out or out Whales can dump faster than you can refresh the price chart one whiff of regulatory concern.

So, what’s the response? Will Bitcoin gracefully descend from moon to earth like a dropped piano? Anyone who professes certainty is pushing snake oil sales. Clearly, though, volatility is not going to take front stage very soon. Dollar-cost averages, smart money manages risk, and sleeps just fine if the price declines.

Forecasting Bitcoin’s future major movement is ultimately like aiming darts in the dark. You do occasionally strike the bullseye. Usually, you tap on the wall. Still, the uncertainty is exciting—a little crazy, a little terrifying, and most definitely addictive. Hence, get ready. The ride is still under progress.